Former Premier exits to trigger by-election and dodge accountability
A Premier resigns months before an election she was set to lose — and by doing so, ensures she'll never have to face the voters' verdict on her record.
Jacinta Allan announced on Friday that she would resign from the Victorian parliament, ending a 27-year career in public life and handing the Bendigo seat back to voters less than three months before a state election she was almost certain to lose anyway. The government's statement thanked her for her service and pointed to a new hospital, upgraded schools, and safer roads. What it did not mention is that Allan's departure means Victorians will go to the polls in November without any opportunity to render a verdict on her time as Premier.
A by-election three months before a general election is not a democratic exercise
The timing deserves scrutiny. A by-election in a safe Labor regional seat, held within weeks of a general election, is not a democratic exercise, it is an administrative formality dressed up in democratic clothing. The people of Bendigo will elect someone, that person will barely have time to find the bathrooms in Spring Street before they are fighting for re-election, and the result will tell us almost nothing about how Victorians assess Allan's record as Premier. That is the point.
Allan became Premier in September 2023 after Daniel Andrews stepped down, inheriting a state carrying one of the largest debt burdens of any Australian jurisdiction, a construction industry in genuine crisis, and a government that had been in power long enough to develop the institutional rot that tends to accumulate in administrations past their third term. Victorian Labor had already begun exhibiting the classic symptoms of a government that had exhausted its welcome: the polling was grim, the narrative had calcified, and no individual announcement was breaking through. The hospital in Bendigo, the schools, the roads, these are real things that got built, and it is fair to credit them. But they also predate Allan's premiership and belong partly to a decade-long project she inherited rather than initiated.
The voters who lived under the government she led will never get to tell her what they actually thought of it.
What Allan did own was the period that followed. The cost-of-living squeeze on Victorian households, the ongoing drip of corruption allegations touching figures close to the government, and a public infrastructure program that has delivered some genuine assets alongside some genuine disasters. The government will point to its record with the confidence of people who know they are about to leave the room. Allan herself is leaving it early.
Retiring before a losing election is tidier than losing it
There is a simpler version of what happened here. Allan was a first-term Premier with a difficult inheritance, a state election on the horizon, and polling numbers that suggested the outcome was already settled. Retiring now is tidier than losing in November. It is also a move that sidesteps the peculiar accountability of elections, where voters who feel lied to, let down, or simply tired of a government get one consolidated, unmistakable opportunity to say so. A former Premier sitting in opposition is one thing. A former Premier who departed before polling day is something easier to manage historically.
None of this is unique to Allan or to Victorian Labor. The convention of leaders stepping down before an election they expect to lose is as old as the Westminster system. But convention does not make it less consequential. By-elections triggered by voluntary retirements close to general elections impose real costs on taxpayers, produce results that neither confirm nor challenge the incumbent government's record, and create a short legislative gap in representation for a community that deserves continuity. The fact that it happens often does not mean it happens at no cost.
The government's statement framed Allan's departure as a torch being passed, a legacy being honoured, a community being served. That framing is doing a lot of work. What is actually being passed is a safe seat in a by-election that will resolve nothing, followed three months later by a general election that might resolve a great deal. Bendigo voters will get two trips to the polling booth this year. The one that matters will not feature Jacinta Allan's name on any ballot.
That, in the end, is the sharpest critique available. Not that she served poorly, not that the legacy is hollow, but that the voters who lived under the government she led will never get to tell her what they actually thought of it. She will not be on the ballot in November. The verdict will land, but she will not be there to receive it.
Sources
Victorian Government — Statement From The Premier
The Bearing — When politicians are 'on the nose' there's not much they can do
Frequently Asked Questions
Why is Jacinta Allan resigning from parliament before the Victorian election?
Allan resigned with a state election due in November 2026, a contest her government was widely expected to lose. Retiring before polling day is tidier than losing it, and it means she will not personally face voters as Premier — a form of accountability the Westminster system provides only at elections.
What happens when a Victorian MP resigns before a general election?
A by-election must be held to fill the vacant seat, even if a state election is only months away. The newly elected member will serve a very short term before facing re-election, and the cost of running the by-election falls to taxpayers.
Is it normal for a Premier to resign before an election they expect to lose?
It is a well-established convention in the Westminster system, but convention does not make it costless. By-elections triggered by voluntary retirements close to a general election impose real financial costs and produce results that tell voters little about how the departing government performed.
What was Jacinta Allan's record as Victorian Premier?
Allan became Premier in September 2023 after inheriting a state with a very high per-capita debt burden, a construction industry in crisis, and a government that had been in power long enough to accumulate significant political damage. Her tenure included a cost-of-living squeeze on households and corruption allegations involving figures close to the government, alongside continued delivery of infrastructure projects.
Will the Bendigo by-election tell us anything about Victorian Labor's chances in November?
Very little. Bendigo is a safe Labor regional seat, and by-elections fought on local issues weeks before a general election rarely reflect broader voter sentiment. The November 2026 state election will be the meaningful verdict on the Allan government's record.