In case of electoral emergency: Fix the kids’ teeth
Victoria has a $150 billion debt problem. Its government's pre-election answer is free toothpaste. What that choice reveals about the Carroll government's position.
There is a recognisable moment in the life of a government when it stops governing and starts campaigning, and the tells are usually small. A ribbon cutting here, a feel-good announcement there. The Carroll government's decision to make Smile Squad — free school dental care for Victorian kids — a centrepiece of its pre-election positioning is one of those tells, delivered with full fanfare at an Alphington primary school on a Monday morning. The policy itself is not new. The amplification is.
Smile Squad works — that is precisely why it was chosen
The public health case for Smile Squad is real enough. Almost 43 per cent of Victorian children aged five to ten have tooth decay. Preventable dental hospitalisations are among the highest in that age cohort. Private dental care can run to $400 per child per year, which is not nothing when household budgets are under the kind of pressure Victorians are currently absorbing. Treating tooth decay early prevents more expensive interventions later, and doing it at school removes the logistical barrier that causes families to delay or skip care altogether. On the merits, a well-run school dental programme is a defensible use of public money.
Smile Squad has also built genuine reach. More than a thousand public schools visited, three regional specialist hubs opened in Bendigo, Geelong and Latrobe, a million oral health packs distributed. These are not vanity numbers. For the families who have used it, the programme has delivered something concrete.
A government that campaigns on incremental service delivery when the real questions are structural does not reassure the electorate — it reminds them of what is not being discussed.
The announcement tells you more about the government than the programme does
But here is where the political arithmetic becomes hard to ignore. Victoria's fiscal position is not good. The state carries debt levels that dwarf any comparable jurisdiction in Australia, a trajectory that previous budgets locked in through infrastructure commitments that ran badly over cost and schedule. As we have covered previously, Labor under its current leadership is exhibiting the classic symptoms of a government that has exhausted its welcome, with debt, corruption allegations and cost-of-living pressure all compressing its support simultaneously. The November election is close, and the polling is not kind.
Against that backdrop, the government's chosen messenger is free toothpaste. Not a credible plan for debt reduction. Not a response to the militant industrial relations environment that has driven up public sector wage costs across the state. Not an explanation for why the infrastructure pipeline that was supposed to unlock economic productivity has repeatedly delivered delay and cost overrun. Teeth.
There is a logic to it, even if the logic is unflattering. School dental care is visible, popular, and impossible to oppose without appearing to be against children's health. It costs the government little in terms of political exposure and a great deal in terms of column inches. Announcing it outside a primary school, surrounded by small children with their newly cleaned teeth, is as close to a cost-free news cycle as a government with this many problems can manufacture.
Voters may recognise the gap between the announcement and the problem
The risk is that voters see through the mechanism. A government that campaigns on incremental service delivery when the real questions are structural does not reassure the electorate — it reminds them of what is not being discussed. The teacher enterprise agreement that locked in salary increases of up to 32 per cent over four years was a reminder that every commitment made by this government carries a budget price tag, and those tags have a habit of compounding. Smile Squad is not that kind of commitment. But it is the kind of announcement a government makes when it has run out of bigger ones.
That is not an argument for scrapping the programme. The children whose cavities got caught before they became hospitalisations are better off for it, and any government of either stripe that wound it back would be making a genuine mistake on public health grounds. The opposition's alleged $40 billion cuts plan, if accurate, would likely include exactly this kind of service, which is a legitimate point to make.
The programme is good. The politics surrounding it are transparent. Victoria's next government, whatever its colour, will inherit debt, a restless public sector workforce and an electorate that has been burned enough times to be sceptical of announcements that glow a little too warmly. Healthy smiles are a fine thing to give children. They are not an answer to a $175.6 billion debt.
Sources
Victorian Government — Free Dental Care For Kids At School
The Bearing — When politicians are 'on the nose' there's not much they can do
The Bearing — Victoria's $2bn teacher pay bet: can it buy better schools or just make a budget hole?
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Victoria's Smile Squad programme?
Smile Squad is a Victorian government programme that sends dental health teams into public primary schools to provide free check-ups, cleaning and treatment to students. It has operated since 2019 and has visited more than a thousand public schools across the state.
How many kids does Smile Squad actually reach?
The programme has treated more than 175,000 children since launching in 2019, distributed a million oral health packs, and operates three regional specialist hubs in Bendigo, Geelong and Latrobe. Nearly 43 per cent of Victorian children aged five to ten have tooth decay, so the programme is targeting a genuine and widespread problem.
Why is the Victorian government promoting Smile Squad now?
The Carroll government faces a November state election with poor polling, elevated debt, corruption allegations and cost-of-living pressure all weighing on its support. Smile Squad is a visible, popular programme that is politically impossible to oppose — making it ideal pre-election material for a government that lacks a credible economic story to tell.
How bad is Victoria's debt problem?
Victoria carries debt levels that dwarf comparable Australian states, a trajectory locked in by infrastructure projects that ran badly over cost and schedule. The state's debt stands at approximately $150 billion — a figure that school dental programmes, however worthy, cannot meaningfully address.
Would a change of government mean the end of free school dental care in Victoria?
The opposition's alleged $40 billion cuts agenda, if accurate, would put programmes like Smile Squad at risk — though the figure has not been independently verified. Any government that wound back the programme would be making a genuine public health mistake: early dental treatment prevents more expensive hospital interventions, and the access barrier for low-income families is real.