Who wants a 28 per cent pay rise?
Victoria just handed specialist health workers a 28% pay rise. The workers may well deserve it — but who pays, and when, is a different question entirely.
The Victorian government has handed health sector workers covered by the Health Services Union a pay rise of 28 per cent over three and a half years, plus a $1,500 one-off payment, $3,500 annually for professional development, and five days of paid reproductive health leave per year. The workers covered include medical scientists, pharmacists, psychologists, dietitians, genetic counsellors, and audiologists, which is to say, precisely the kind of skilled, credentialled professionals who have options and know it.
The case for the deal is real — but the timing is not accidental
The case for the deal is not hard to make. These are not entry-level roles. Medical physicists, genetic counsellors, and perfusionists are specialists whose skills the public health system cannot easily replace, and cannot easily train up in a hurry. When the private sector and interstate health systems compete for the same people, a public employer that falls far enough behind on pay simply loses staff. That is not a theoretical concern. Victoria's health system emerged from the pandemic years with workforce shortages, burnout, and retention problems that are still working through the system. Paying competitive wages to keep these people is, on one reasonable reading, exactly what governments are supposed to do.
But the timing and the pattern deserve scrutiny, and the two are inseparable. This deal follows the government's enterprise agreement for government school teachers, which The Bearing covered in detail: salary rises of up to 32 per cent over four years with a budget cost the announcement substantially understated. Two large, union-negotiated, election-adjacent wage settlements in quick succession is a pattern, not a coincidence.
Victoria is heading into an election. The HSU is a union with members and a voice. Teachers have a union with members and a voice. The government just gave both groups something significant to feel good about. You do not need to assume cynicism to notice the alignment. The question is whether the deals are defensible on their own terms, and whether the state can afford them. The answer to the first question is probably yes for both. The answer to the second question is considerably less certain.
A 28% rise is not a one-off cost — it resets the base permanently
Victoria's budget position is, to put it plainly, stretched. The state carries one of the largest debt loads of any Australian jurisdiction, a hangover from infrastructure spending and pandemic-era outlays that the government has been rolling forward rather than resolving. Large wage settlements compound that problem not just in the year they are signed but across every forward year of the agreement, and often beyond, because they reset the base on which future increases compound. A 28 per cent rise over three and a half years, applied across a workforce of meaningful size, is not a one-off cost. It is a structural shift in the wage bill.
What the government has not provided, at least not publicly, is a clear accounting of what that structural shift costs. The media release names the conditions. It does not name the price. That omission matters. Public sector enterprise agreements are paid for by taxpayers, and taxpayers are entitled to know the total figure, not just the headline percentage.
When the government sets pay benchmarks this aggressively, it does not only affect the workers covered by this agreement. It shifts the reference point for every other health sector negotiation that follows.
There is also a second-order effect worth naming. When the government sets pay benchmarks this aggressively, it does not only affect the workers covered by this agreement. It shifts the reference point for every other health sector negotiation that follows. Unions for nurses, allied health assistants, and other clinical support staff will point to 28 per cent as the floor. That is how enterprise bargaining actually works, and the government knows it.
The people covered by this agreement do difficult, skilled work, and there is nothing wrong with them pursuing the best deal they can. That is what unions are for, and a genuinely competitive pay outcome for scarce professionals in a strained public health system is not a scandal. What it is, is expensive, strategically timed, and part of a broader pattern of pre-election generosity with money the state does not obviously have.
Buying goodwill before an election is as old as democratic politics. The more interesting question is whether voters price in who picks up the tab afterwards.
Sources
Victorian Government — Labor Backs Health Professionals With Pay Rise
The Bearing — Victoria's $2bn teacher pay bet: can it buy better schools or just make a budget hole?
The Bearing — Former Premier exits to trigger by-election and dodge accountability
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Victoria's HSU No. 4 health workers get in their new enterprise agreement?
The agreement delivers a 28 per cent pay rise over three and a half years, a one-off $1,500 payment, $3,500 annually for professional development, and five days of paid reproductive health leave per year. Workers covered include medical scientists, pharmacists, psychologists, dietitians, genetic counsellors, and audiologists.
Why is Victoria's public sector wage bill a budget problem?
Large pay rises do not just cost money in the year they are signed — they permanently reset the base from which future increases compound. Victoria already carries one of the largest debt loads of any Australian state, and successive enterprise agreements for teachers and now health professionals add structural, not temporary, pressure to forward budgets.
How does one public sector pay deal affect other workers' negotiations?
When a government sets an aggressive benchmark in one agreement, unions in related sectors use that figure as a reference point in their own bargaining. A 28 per cent rise for HSU No. 4 members effectively sets a floor that nurses, allied health assistants, and clinical support staff will point to in their next negotiations.
Is the Victorian health pay rise justified given workforce shortages?
On the merits, the case is real: medical physicists, genetic counsellors, and perfusionists are scarce specialists who face genuine competition from the private sector and interstate employers. Victoria's health system emerged from the pandemic with documented retention problems, and competitive pay is one legitimate tool for addressing them. The issue is not whether the workers deserve it, but whether the state has been transparent about what it costs.
Why is the timing of Victoria's health pay deal significant?
The agreement was announced ahead of a Victorian state election, following a similarly structured deal for government school teachers. Two large, union-negotiated wage settlements in quick succession — both timed to land before an election — form a pattern of pre-election spending that the state's strained budget will have to absorb across every forward year of both agreements.